Why Saudi Investment Hasn't Turned Newcastle into Championship Challengers

Eddie Howe is not prone to dramatics or sweeping public pronouncements. So by his usual demeanor, his media briefing following the weekend's 3-1 defeat counts as a furious outburst. His side scored first but West Ham were ahead by half-time, while also hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick revoked by VAR, leading Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” the coach stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I believe this indicated of our performance level in that moment in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to feel that way. Actually, I cannot recall I have since I’ve been head coach of the club, so I felt the squad required some shaking up at the break. That’s why I made what I did.”

Three key players were substituted at half-time and Newcastle did stabilise somewhat in the second half, but never appearing like they could fight back into the contest against an opponent that had won only one of their last nine fixtures. Considering how packed the middle of the table currently is, with just three points dividing third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a run of twelve points from ten matches has not placed Newcastle adrift but, similarly, they must not finish the season in 13th.

The Issue of Expectations

The challenge partially is one of public view. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle possess the richest owners in the world. The expectation at the time the Saudi fund acquired 80% of the team in 2021 was that it would have a transformative effect, as Roman Abramovich had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The distinction is that both of those investors took over prior to the advent of FFP regulations (and the current charges against Manchester City relate to whether they violated those guidelines once they were in place).

Profit and sustainability regulations restrict the ability of owners, no matter how wealthy, to invest funds on their squads and therefore probably might have hindered every Middle Eastern effort to elevate the team to the standard of City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they might have spent more and remained within the threshold – or simply taken a fairly minor European penalty given their major issue is primarily with the continental than the domestic regulation.

Stadium Investment and PSR Rules

Besides which, infrastructure spending is exempted from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest way to increase revenue to create more PSR flexibility would be to expand or renovate the stadium. Considering the site of the home ground, with protected structures on two sides, practically that likely implies building an entirely new venue. There was talk in March of possibly making the nearby relocation to a local park – opposition from local groups could surely have been overcome with a commitment to build a replacement green space on the existing ground location – but there has been any progress on that proposal. There has been substantial retrenchment from the Saudi fund on a range of initiatives as it refocuses on local investments; the approach to Newcastle seems entirely in alignment with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The Alexander Isak saga was born of that conflict. A bolder management could have portrayed his transfer as necessary to free up capital for additional spending; rather there was a unsuccessful attempt to retain him. That meant Newcastle began the season amid a sense of disappointment even with the acquisitions of Woltemade, Yoane Wissa, Jacob Ramsey, Malick Thiaw and Anthony Elanga. The opening was mixed: a single victory in their first six fixtures.

Yet it appeared a corner was reached. They had won five victories in six matches before Sunday, a streak that featured demolitions of a Belgian side and Benfica in the Champions League. That’s why the display against the Hammers was so surprising. The problem maybe is that Newcastle’s style is extremely intense, very high-octane; a slight drop-off in intensity can have profound consequences. Maybe the pressure of Premier League, European and cup matches, five fixtures in a fortnight, had got to them. Woltemade featured in all five matches and looked particularly weary.

The Nature of Contemporary Soccer

This is the nature of today's the sport. Managers have to be prepared to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that Wissa’s fitness issue has meant he is lacking forward choices but, regardless of how valid the explanations, Sunday’s performance was unacceptable –particularly following scoring first at a stadium primed to turn on its home team.

The Newcastle boss will hope it was just a blip, one of those days when all players is off-colour simultaneously, but if Newcastle are to qualify for the Champions League next season, not to mention eventually launch an actual title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as this.

Kelly Mckay
Kelly Mckay

A professional gambler and writer with over a decade of experience in casino games, specializing in baccarat tactics and strategies.